The US-Iran MOU was signed June 17, but Hormuz stability has not followed. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes within 48 hours, Iran redeclared the strait closed June 20, and the US disputed that claim the same day. Pulse Score climbs from 74 to 77 as freight rates spike alongside the unresolved Lebanon front. Six signals tracked this week across geopolitical, freight, trade policy, raw materials, technology, and port congestion dimensions.

🌍 GEOPOLITICAL | CRITICAL

The US-Iran MOU was signed June 17, calling for hostilities to end on all fronts including Lebanon. Within 48 hours, Israel struck Lebanon, killing 21 people. Iran redeclared Hormuz closed June 20 citing Israeli non-compliance. The US disputed the closure, citing 32 vessel transits that same day and over 20 million barrels shipped out in a single week per Bloomberg. The situation remains conditional and unstable day to day.

Suggested Action: Do not plan around the peace deal headline. Plan around carrier behavior and confirmed transit data, which remains volatile. Normalization is expected to take weeks to months even in a best case scenario.

🚢 FREIGHT | CRITICAL

Drewry WCI jumped 12% to $3,969 per 40ft container, the highest level in 18 months. Shanghai to New York rose 15% to $6,769. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 10% to $5,142. Peak season arrived early as retailers front-load ahead of the July tariff deadlines, with US imports forecast at 2.25 million TEU in June alone.

Suggested Action: Capacity is fully booked through end of June. Confirm Q3 contract coverage now, carriers are warning of an 80% fuel surcharge increase when quarterly BAF rates update in July.

📋 TRADE POLICY | HIGH

Three US trade actions converge in a 17 day window starting July 7, now 32 days away. July 6 comment deadline and July 7 hearing for USTR forced labor Section 301 investigations, 10 to 12.5% proposed on 60 economies. July 24 Section 122 global import surcharge expiry. July 24 USTR overcapacity remedy target covering 16 ASEAN and Indo-Pacific economies.

Suggested Action: Map HTS exposure across all three tracks now. A Federal Circuit stay keeps Section 122 in effect through July 24 despite an earlier US Trade Court ruling against it, so plan for the surcharge to remain active unless Congress acts.

🛢️ RAW MATERIALS | HIGH

Aluminum hit $3,400 per ton, the highest level since March 2022, driven by Middle East energy disruption and China production concerns. Copper holds firm around $6.31 per pound, up nearly 40% year over year. DRAM contract prices rose 90 to 95% in Q1 2026 alone, with SK Hynix and Micron 2026 capacity sold out to AI buyers and no relief expected before mid-2027.

Suggested Action: Secure Q3 semiconductor allocation commitments in writing now. Review Q3 pricing on aluminum and copper-dependent components against the current elevated baseline.

🌦 PORT CONGESTION | HIGH

The port congestion cascade is intensifying as peak season volume meets Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Shanghai terminals report 2 to 7 day berth delays. Manila sits at a 4.89 day average vessel wait. Hamburg's CTA terminal is running at 85% yard occupancy with 24 hour to 4 day delays from ongoing crane installation work.

Suggested Action: Build a minimum 1 week buffer into Asia-Europe and Asia-PH transit plans through end of June. Confirm alternate berth arrangements for any Hamburg-routed cargo.

The peace deal is real. The operational stability importers actually need is not. Within 48 hours of the MOU signing, the situation that was supposed to be resolved became the thing actively destabilizing the deal. Hormuz opened and closed twice in the same week depending on which side you ask. Both the closure and the dispute over the closure are true at the same time, that is what a fragile deal looks like in practice. Meanwhile, the number that actually moved markets is the one nobody put in a headline: Drewry WCI at $3,969, the highest in 18 months. Peak season front-loading ahead of the July tariff cliff is the real driver of cost pressure this week, not the diplomacy. 32 days to three converging tariff deadlines. That clock does not pause for ceasefire talks.

Pulse Score: 77. Still High Risk. Still watching the carrier data, not the headlines.

Harold Ramos, Supply Chain Director & Founder, ChainPulse Intelligence